Labourhome - Stories by simon morley

[Blogs] Transnistria: an EU dry run for tackling the Caucasus?

2008-08-27T03:57:20-05:00

Despite the tragic loss of life, nothing much seems to have changed in Georgia as the pieces re-settle. Except perhaps making ultimate resolution more difficult, and strengthening both sides ties to their Russian and US backers. But South Ossetia and Abkhazia are only two regions that make up the four ‘frozen conflicts’ remaining from the breakup of the Soviet Union. Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh are the other two. Chechnya, which borders Georgia, is different in that it does not directly involve an internationally recognised state other than Russia.
Transnistria sits on a narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine, so some distance from the Caucasus. Each of the four frozen conflicts is of course unique, but they do share common features. Their geographical proximity to the EU, and particularly to likely future members, together with the common Soviet origins of most of the key players, suggests making their resolution within a common framework a key EU priority. And of the four, the proximity and relative stability of Transnistria make it the obvious candidate for the first push. Nominally within Moldova, it functions in many respects as an independent state, albeit bolstered by the presence of Russian troops, although it does not share a border with Russia.

And making real progress on the frozen conflicts means more serious thought needs to be given to proceeding in a more direct fashion towards EU membership for Moldova, Ukraine and Turkey. Membership itself could still be a decade or more away, but given the depth of experience with accession within the EU it should be possible to put together relatively firm, realistic, long-term plans. As well as Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh also involves Armenia, which raises issues from its Ottoman heritage that Turkey still needs to resolve. It may be a complication too many, but Iran also borders the Caucasus, so inviting a degree of Iranian participation at some stage could also help establish effective relationships and modalities that could in the fullness of time be brought to bare on Afghanistan and Iraq. If people thought the Balkans were tough, though ‘fingers crossed’ largely resolved now, the Caucasus will be more so. Whatever approach is taken, avoiding tragedy in the Caucasus on the scale of the Balkans, or worse, will need the investment of serious political capital.

[Blogs] Go Gordon: be a Hero of the European Union

2008-05-23T16:24:47-05:00

In times of turbulence look for a good anchorage: to protect Britain from the ravages of a turbulent global environment Gordon should seriously consider steering Britain firmly into the heart of the European Union. OK so we are members, but we could still choose to be free of the unnecessary bureaucracy that goes with having our own currency and visa area. The current legislative programme is very worthwhile on the whole, but bores the media silly. Particularly in agency working and family friendly policies important progress is being made, maybe less so in criminal justice, but after eleven years this is all far more about firming up proven successes than setting a fresh course for the country. And although most people may well be content with steady as we go, the media most certainly will not be. Highly ambitious individuals’ careers depend on attracting viewers and readers. Tidying up lose ends does not do that.

Long term issues of public service reform, constitutional reform, narrowing salary differentials and global institutional reform remain to be addressed, but need a slightly longer term approach than a relentless media grid allows the party centre to engage with. In many ways these are issues that are more about a direction of travel and responding to events than susceptible to micro-management.

But two issues do open themselves to direct engagement with voters: credit market regulation and national transport infrastructure. Both have an important EU angle.

The economic conditions are now right to join the Euro. Labour policy has always been that this was politically desirable, and the Conservatives presumably take the opposite view (the Euro could be Cameron’s ‘clause 4’ but that seems a remote possibility). Let us have that debate, and put the question to a referendum to give many the say they clearly desire on Britain’s relationship with Europe. We can make the case for ordinary people and small businesses to have the access to stable low Euro interest rates, that large corporations and wealthy individuals already have, and let voters have their say. And give the media the circus they obviously crave; based on policy not personalities.

Alongside this let us ask the EU to agree to shift funds from the CAP to regional development, and specifically to help build a Eurostar high speed rail network to better connect Britain’s regions, both together and to the European mainland. Specifically, routes to the northeast, northwest and southwest of England should be decided. This offers a real opportunity to help regenerate towns and cities away from London, and to relieve the pressure on housing in and around London. Let now be the time to invest real political attention and capital in deciding the route details, to remove the need for extended planning processes and so to start preparing construction before the next election. Send out a public call for proposals for routes and let Gordon get into the details, where he clearly thrives, under sustained press scrutiny. If the Crewe by-election has highlighted one thing it is that while there are many opportunities for low-paid work, the kind of regeneration that offers well-paying jobs is thin on the ground in many parts of the country. One issue could be the introduction of road charging to help fund rail construction, to both cut carbon emissions and reduce road traffic. And with direct trains from say Doncaster to Düsseldorf, among many other possibilities, it will make more obvious sense for the UK to join the Schengen visa area.

The last thing we should be doing is planning to loose the next election, but if that was the choice of the voters we would be clear what our legacy was, and set a high standard the Tories would need to match to retain the confidence of voters. But a clear focus for the media for the next couple of years would give the government space to focus on what works rather than what comes over well on the media, and give the party time to debate a real manifesto for change for the next election.

[Blogs] The Euro referendum: if not now when?

2008-05-05T13:37:07-05:00

With the current slowdown in financial markets and the continuing strength of the Euro, now is as good a time as ever to launch a referendum campaign for Britain to join the Euro.

On 9 June 2003 the Government published its assessment of the five economic tests, the 18 supporting studies and the third outline national changeover plan. At that time the economic tests were not met. But Labour government policy remains to join the euro “if Government, Parliament, and the people, in a referendum, all agreed that it would be the right thing to do”. Five years on there should be another look.

The benefits to economic stability in the long term, alongside Europe’s more equitable wage differentials and social security systems, make it more sensible than ever to join as soon as is practical.

In terms of the mortgage market, where the short-term potential difficulties lie, the current conditions are very conducive. Once a referendum supported joining, Euro mortgages should be made available for property in Britain. In 2003 the estimated equilibrium exchange rate was 1.37. Currently it is 1.28. So taking out a €200,000 mortgage now would pay off a £156,000 mortgage, which if conversion was at 1.37 would be worth €214,000. The current headline rate for the Euro is 4%, and for the Pound it is 5%. While these do not correspond directly to mortgage rates, they do give an indication of the relative interest payments in the meantime.

The economics look like making very good sense, and in terms of the politics there also may not be a better time for some time to come. We can still have at least two years in government, but what we hope to achieve in headline terms is not clear, though much good work on details continues apace. The City and business have always supported the move, so it would be difficult for Boris as London mayor not to. It would be a real test for Cameron, either to win support for British families within the Tory party, or succumb to its vocal little England wing.

European parliament elections are due on 11 June 2009. Lets make that referendum day!

I have just set up a facebook group to see if we can drum up support for this, so please join and ask your facebook friends to as well: http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=13712058308

[Blogs] A safer 2008

2007-12-10T14:04:18-05:00

At least in conventional international relations terms the world seems safer this month than last, particularly over potential future conflicts with Iran and Russia.

First the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran released last week assesses that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, virtually ending the possibility of a US attack on Iran.

Then today President Putin anointed as his successor Dmitry Medvedev. Although relatively young, Medvedev does have a considerable domestic track record. But the significance here is more in who Putin didn't choose. His recent appointment of Viktor Zubkov suggested to some that he could be Putin's nominee, but effectively be a front for Putin's continuing control. The other widely touted possibility was First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, who has a background in the security apparatus, marking him out as a likely hawk. Overall this suggests a more constitutional Russia, focused more directly on domestic concerns (too early to say reforms) than confrontational international posturing for a domestic audience.

Today also saw think tank Demos launch their major report on national security, partly in anticipation of a National Security Strategy promised by the government for the end of the year. IPPR are also in the midst of a major review, possibly on the same scale as the Comission on Social Justice they ran in the 90s.

So while evidence suggests traditional threats are retreating, the combination of instability in many regions alongside growing global interdependencies, means there is a growing recognition that traditional approaches to international relations and national security are increasingly risky.

[Blogs] Former defence chiefs are revolting!

2007-11-23T09:01:16-05:00

But enough of carry on, eh? What seems a little puzzling is the timing of the recent complaints on defence spending, particularly given that it is only two months since the Comprehensive Spending Review, which was the culmination of months of detailed debate, and following on from which there is little immediate fiscal flexibility. The party political part of me wonders whether this was a too-good-to-loose leftover from the Tory general election campaign that never came, left on standby until Labour’s worst week in a long time. But I also come at this from a background in international organisations and relations, rather than defence as such, and I do have a lot of respect for people prepared to put their lives on the line for their country. So I can’t quite believe it is purely a party issue, despite the very personal nature of several of the comments.

One issue that I can see getting senior military people upset is what they may regard as trespassing on their professional territory. Could it be that the real concern is the early stages of a public debate not so much on the level of spending, but its focus? Traditionally, defence spending has very much been a matter, once the level is determined, of service chiefs themselves deciding how it is spent. But issues such as whether to proportionately fund the Army at a higher level than the Navy or the Air Force (perhaps taking into account Labour’s natural sympathy with the ‘poor bloody infantry’), and the balance between procuring jets and carriers over helicopters and uninhabited aircraft, are starting to bubble into the public domain. Perhaps questions are even being increasingly asked, confidentially, across Whitehall? But given the likely continuing calls on the military, within a complex political context both internationally and domestically, political debate in this area would seem to be warranted, and without it simply asking for more money is unlikely to get very far.

[Blogs] HS3 and More

2007-11-18T18:23:56-05:00

Greengauge21, the campaign group led by Jim Steer a former head of strategic planning for the Strategic Rail Authority, has recently released on its website a document outlining a feasible strategy for developing a UK wide high speed rail network. It seems to me high speed rail could help the EU really connect with ordinary Europeans if it shifted some funding from agriculture to help build a high speed rail network across the member states, building on the recently formed Railteam alliance, in the UK but also into the newer member states.

Is this something that could go forward to the NPF, or is it too late for the second year of the “creating sustainable communities” commission? A new town the size of Sevenoaks is being built around the new Ebbsfleet station on HS1 in Kent and major new, or more likely re-developed, station developments combined with existing rail and road links and possibly new (light rail?) links could provide a whole variety of ‘bullet train’ commuters into London and ‘middle office’ commercial office space, building on existing and expanded community infrastructure, providing a real economic boost to areas across ‘middle Britiain,’ both creating new employment and easing the pressure for new houses in and around London. As well as quick, convenient and environmentally friendly links for Europe-wide business and tourism to the new stations, and nearby city and town centres with existing rail links, both outward and inward. Maximum benefits need a combination of national and local working, but overall both directly and psychologically could be huge.

[Blogs] Polls measure media-savvy people

2007-10-08T17:27:34-05:00

I wonder in all the focus on polls today it hasn’t passed some people by that when most people are polled they understand the consequences of their answers, and use the answers to send messages. And I am sure most Labour supporters don’t see any need to take the risk of an election any time soon. People understand when there is a year to go events can come along – the 2001 election was delayed and everyone stood down at the last minute because of foot and mouth – but three years to go is a different thing. In current circumstances tory supporters are going to emphasize their desire for a poll. There is a research project here no doubt, but as every one says, both politicians and pollsters, polls by themselves don’t tell you the best thing to do, they are just one form of evidence. I’m glad the BBC are backing off from their earlier claims that Gordon wasn’t influenced by polls, because he said they were one consideration, which actually makes a change from politicians appearing to suggest they pay them no attention.